Bailout Law Embraces Socialism

Our economic crisis is the result of excessive credit and a collapse of inflated property values. Difficult economic times like this provide the temptation for America to reject its capitalism/free-enterprise system and embrace socialism. The bailout law recently passed by Congress and quickly signed by President Bush is geared to turn our economy into socialism.

When the government bails out those who suffer economic losses—it socializes the economy’s losses. And when the government taxes the successful businesses at extra high tax rates—it socializes the profits. Put the two of these together, and you’ve got socialism.

The stimulus package passed by Congress and the President a year ago—where the government paid over a thousand dollars to thousands of taxpayers—this is also a brand of socialism. And now there’s talk of another stimulus package. The problem with all these programs is that we don’t have the money to pay for them. The bail-out and the stimulus package are funded by DEBT. This means they provide a short-term fix, and that our children and grandchildren will be paying back this debt for the next 30+ years.

Of course, debt applies to both capitalism and socialism. But socialism solutions will make the situation worse. Rather than allow the market to correct itself, the government has rushed in and secured a .7 trillion dollar loan to attempt to fix the problem quick. The Bailout law will spread the loss around so that all tax payers will pay for it, and non tax payers will reap the benefits. Then, if Mr. Obama gets elected, he proposes to tax the dickens out of the rich, so that he can spread their wealth around. That’s what socialism is—spreading the losses and the profits around so that we can become one, big middle class. But it is NOT the role of the federal government (under the Constitution) to provide for the people and to use the force of law to equalize incomes and assets. And just as importantly, it is economic suicide for a government to attempt this. Socialism has failed every where it has been attempted. That is because rather than rewarding creativity and productivity, socialism punishes them!

Mr. Obama’s campaign has been founded on SOCIALISM. His speeches appeal to the poor and the suffering; Mr. Obama promises to provide for every need and to solve every problem through government programs. To do this, he promises to tax the rich and to spread their wealth around to all the suffering masses. This pathetic appeal will undermine our economy. It may attract voters—to promise to provide for them—but it takes from the producers and gives to the unproductive. THIS IS NOT THE ROLE OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT. Mr. Obama wants to change America from being a land of opportunity to being a land of entitlements. That is socialism!

We cannot continue to pretend that it is the role of government to be the provider for the people. That is socialism. That is Mr. Obama’s campaign message. It is wrong. It may win him an election by appealing to the weaknesses of the electorate. But it will eventually prove the downfall of our economy if it is not stopped and corrected.

A bi-partisan majority of Senators and Congressmen approved this bail-out package, and both Senators Obama and McCain supported it. So if this bail-out makes things worse, both parties will share the blame. When we make our government become the provider for its people, and when we eliminate the risks of capitalism, we abandon the limited government set up by our founding fathers. When a majority of voters transform the federal government into a provider of entitlements, we will have discarded the free enterprise system and embraced socialism. Only if we cut back on the role of government can we rescue our free enterprise system.

Look friends (as Senator McCain would say), the long-term solution to fixing this crisis is to wean our nation from too much reliance on credit; individuals, businesses AND governments need to do this. The stock market crash of 2008 was caused by excessive credit and overly inflated property values. The greed that fed this disaster is not limited to the fat cat executives, but includes all the people who over-extended themselves and bought houses that they could not afford. When the majority of a nation lives beyond its means, financial disaster is bound to strike hard and extensively.

With the establishment of responsible fiscal policies in homes, businesses and governments, we will survive the crash of 2008 and the Bailout law. We must re-establish our economy on principles of fiscal responsibility and hard work. But in our haste to solve the problem, let us not embrace socialism, for this will kill the incentive to be innovative and productive. Remember socialism tends to provide the same benefits for all people, regardless of who works and who produces goods and services. This, in turn, discourages initiative and investment, and tends to drive them overseas—to other economies that do reward them. That is why socialism has consistently failed, wherever it has been practiced. The law of the harvest is the foundation of a strong economy. Socialism is not the law of the harvest. In socialism, the goal is to level the playing field so that everyone reaps what other workers have sewn. Socialism is class warfare that operates through the force of law. Socialism doesn’t trust the people to care for one another. Not only does socialism use force to accomplish its purposes, but it is both inefficient and subject to abuse, as it is administered. That is precisely what happened with the financial failures that hit Fannie Mae and Freddie Mack. When the government went overboard in its goal to provide affordable housing to the poor, it abandoned principles of fiscal soundness and promoted irresponsible programs that (1) extended credit to those who should not have qualified and (2) secured these bad loans with property having grossly inflated values. Again, this is the recipe for financial disaster.

The socialism bailout package that Congress just passed is a mistake; it will only exacerbate our financial problems. We must reverse this socialistic trend by reducing government spending and debt. We cannot continue to increase government spending every time we try to solve economic problems. We must repeal and/or revise laws that are killing our free enterprise system. If we abandon our capitalism/free enterprise system, we will kill capital investment, stifle productivity, and ruin our economy.

Despite the need to curtail government spending, Senator Obama is calling for multiple new entitlement programs to spread the wealth around. Senator McCain, on the other hand, opposes creating new entitlement programs, and he is calling for a freeze on ever-escalating government spending. Senator McCain’s approach would be best for the nation.

The Roe v. Wade Scare Ad Tactic

CLU 09/08
by C. Paul Smith

The selection of Sarah Palin as the Republican Vice Presidential nominee has been a home run for Senator McCain and the Republicans. She is a true conservative. She wants to drill for oil in Alaska, where she is governor. Not only does she say she is pro-family, but she has a large family to prove it. Not only does she say she is pro-life, but she loves the Down syndrome baby that she bore at age 44, five months ago. She is attractive and articulate. She is proud of her small-town roots. She challenges the man-made global warming alarmists. She despises the politically correct, left wing mantras. She is one of us! She has done for the Republican Party what John McCain could not do—energized the conservative base. Both Senator McCain and Governor Sarah Palin are solidly for the Right to Life—and starkly opposed to the Democratic ticket’s pro-abortion stance. Sarah Palin’s nomination has catapulted the McCain/ Palin ticket ahead of Obama/Biden in the polls.

This is not good for Senators Obama and Biden. In fact it is bad for them. In fact they are desperate to stop the McCain/Palin Express before they get run over. This calls for an early deployment of the Democrats’ Ace Card—the Roe v. Wade Scare Ad Tactic! The Democrats had hoped to wait until later in the campaign to play this card, but the explosive success of Sarah Palin has precipitated the Democrats’ plunge in the polls, and has put them in panic mode. Tonight (September 5, 2008) on the way home from work, I heard on the radio three times a new ad from Senator Obama—an ad that attempts to counteract the Palin bounce; the ad warns the women of America that McCain will overturn Roe v. Wade, and that this will endanger the health of American women and deprive them of their cherished right to an abortion.

During the last 35 years no Supreme Court case has been more of a lightning rod for polarizing political debate than the Roe v. Wade decision of 1973. That case was controversial from the moment it was announced, and it has remained controversial ever since. Every time a president nominates a new Justice for the Supreme Court, the most important question for interrogation is whether or not that nominee would overturn Roe v. Wade. But, other than addressing the Roe v. Wade issue superficially, with 3-second, sound-bite answers, there has been very little in-depth discussion of this issue. Perhaps in this year’s campaign there will be an opportunity for a more meaningful discussion of Roe v. Wade than normally occurs. This discussion would be very good.

As one who has been a student of the Roe v. Wade ruling for over 30 years (including having written a book on the issue in 1977 [The Fetal Right to Life Argument]), let me share some important insights on this important issue.

1. Overturning Roe would not have to eliminate a woman’s right to privacy. If Roe v. Wade ever were overturned, there are several ways in which it could happen—none of which would require eliminating a woman’s right to privacy and of control over her own body. These alternatives would limit a woman’s right, but not extinguish it. To understand the ways Roe v. Wade could be overturned, you must first understand the three legal problems that were part of this ruling. Correcting any one of these problem areas could be overturning a part of Roe v. Wade.
2. There are three major flaws in the Roe v. Wade ruling. The Roe v. Wade opinion is rather complex. That ruling was one of the worst decisions of all time. It ranks right up there with Dred Scott v. Sandford. There are at least three distinct, serious flaws in Roe v. Wade.

First, the Supreme Court should have exercised judicial restraint and left the Texas legal matter in the hands of the Texas Supreme Court. The U. S. Supreme Court should not have taken the case; the regulation of abortion had been and should have continued to be a matter of state regulation and concern. But even after taking the case, the Court could have recognized a woman’s right to privacy without extinguishing the fetal right to life. But the Court’s over-reaching was uncalled for and grossly excessive.

Second, the Supreme Court went out of its way to state that a fetus is NOT a “person” within the meaning of the Due Process Clause of the Fifth and Fourteenth Amendments. This gratuitous swipe at unborn children was totally uncalled for, unprovoked, illogical, barbaric and a repudiation of two hundred years of legal precedent in America. The eliminating of a fetal right to life was an act of outrageous over-reaching by the Judicial Branch of the government that encroached upon the Legislative Branch of the federal government (by usurping a power that should be only legislative and not judicial.) By what authority did the Supreme Court eliminate the fetal right to life in order to bestow on women a right to kill their unborn children without any consideration of the life of the unborn? The Court had no right. The Court usurped the authority of the states, the legislature and the people when it did this.

Third, the Supreme Court should not have legislated a resolution to the abortion debate. But they did. They constructed a complicated and contradictory legislative scheme to regulate abortions throughout the states: They came up with the trimester scheme where in the first trimester states could not prohibit abortions; in the second trimester states could regulate abortions, taking into consideration the health of the pregnant women; and in the last trimester states could protect potential human life. But the Court also stated that states could protect potential human life when the fetus becomes “viable.” As science and technology have advanced, this standard conflicts with the trimester scheme.

3. Roe v. Wade allowed States to prohibit partial-birth abortion. As terrible as was Roe v. Wade in 1973, today many interpret Roe to extend a woman’s right to an abortion to encompass the right to partial birth abortions. Partial birth abortion literally kills a viable fetus by crushing its skull and sucking its brains out. In 1973, Roe v. Wade specifically provided that states could outlaw this barbaric procedure. But since then, many have interpreted the right to an abortion to supersede the right of a state to prohibit abortions in the last trimester. This broadened interpretation of Roe is reprehensible and should be challenged.

4. A President can neither overturn a case nor amend the Constitution. Contrary to the assertion in the Obama ad, the President of the United States cannot overturn Roe v. Wade. That can happen only by the Supreme Court reversing itself or by passage of a constitutional amendment, the latter of which can only be done by the consensus of a supermajority, i.e., the approval of three-quarters of the states.

5. Part of Roe v. Wade is good—recognizing a woman’s right to privacy. The idea that every part of Roe v. Wade could be or would be overturned is ridiculous. Remember, Roe v. Wade is a very complex case. Up to this point, I don’t ever recall a serious political discussion about what part of Roe v. Wade one would or would not want to overturn. The woman’s right to privacy—the right to control her own body—that will never be over-turned. That part of Roe v. Wade is laudable. But it would be good for the law to acknowledge the existence of a fetal right to continue living that would have to be weighed against a woman’s right to control her body. Extinguishing the fetal right to life was the most opprobrious part of Roe v. Wade. It should be restored, and such a restoration would mean that the right to an abortion would not be an absolute—it would have to be weighed against the fetal right to life. In summary, if Roe v. Wade ever were to be “over-turned,” it would only be one or two aspects of that ruling that would be changed. Possible changes could include: (a) returning the abortion issue to the states; (b) restoring the fetal right to life; and (c) correcting the ruling that a fetus is not a “person.”

The discussion about what parts of Roe v. Wade should be overturned and which should remain would be an important discussion. I welcome it. Parts of Roe v. Wade should be overturned. But those who cling to abortion as the sacrament of their political religion—they don’t want the discussion. They do want to turn the debate into a health issue—but it is not.

There are multiple types of support for the “right to life.” But not all “right to lifers” have the same beliefs and principles about whether abortions are ever justified, and about what conditions might justify an abortion. In the rare instances where abortion would preserve a mother’s life, it would be acceptable. It may be proper in the case of certain severely deformed babies. And it may be allowable in cases of rape or incest—because in those cases a pregnancy was forced upon a woman against her will. Recognizing and addressing these various competing rights would not be easy or convenient. Extinguishing a fetal right to life does simplify the administration of the law—but that law is cruel, oppressive and barbaric. Correcting this serious flaw would require overturning part of Roe v. Wade. But that’s okay—it would be an improvement.

It appears that the McCain/Palin ticket supports changing our law to give the unborn greater protection than is currently afforded under Roe v. Wade. This would be good. But it need not prohibit ALL abortions. I heard that McCain was once quoted as having stated such a position, but I do not support that absolutist position, and I do not believe it would ever become law.

The taking of human life is a serious matter. Protecting those who are most helpless and vulnerable is critically important. If the Democrats want to debate whether or not Roe v. Wade should be overturned—I welcome the debate.

2008 Presidential Campaign Heats Up

Constitutional Law Updates
September 2008
No. 14
2008 Presidential Campaign Heats Up
John McCain (R) vs. Barack Obama (D)
by C. Paul Smith

The 2008 presidential campaign is already a year old, and we are less than 90 days from Election Day (November 4, 2008). Regardless of the outcome, this election has already proved itself to be one of the most interesting and intense of any in recent history. A year ago, we were already anticipating the election of the first woman president; the big issues seemed to be who would Hillary select as her VP, and what would Bill be doing in the White House. But, a year later, the Democrat Party has rejected Hillary and embraced Barack Obama, who may become the first black president. And things were just as tumultuous on the Republican side, where a year ago former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani was the front runner to obtain the nomination. John McCain had dropped out of sight in the polls, and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (who hoped to become the first Mormon president) was emerging from the crowd of candidates, making a concerted effort to apply his business skills to win the nomination. But in a matter of months, Giuliani faded into oblivion; Romney quickly took a lead in the early primaries; former Arkansas Governor Huckabee came from nowhere to play a prominent role in the primaries; but John McCain raised himself from the dead, won a couple of primaries, and then in February, he staged impressive wins in several states that catapulted him to a lead that he never relinquished.

The one “first” that is still up for grabs is whether Obama will be the first black president. This certainly looks possible. However, for my part, electing Obama would be a mistake. Race and color and religion have nothing to do with my views—my positions are issue-oriented, and here they are:

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

McCain, who proudly proclaims himself to be a foot soldier under President Reagan, will employ an approach to foreign relations that will mirror that of President Reagan—Peace through Strength. McCain’s personal courage and bravery is legendary. The Democrat Party’s nominee doesn’t bring either the personal resume nor the principled philosophy to qualify him to lead the nation in international dealings. Merely proclaiming peace and decrying war is not an adequate foreign policy, and it does not appear that Senator Obama has learned the lessons from world history, that evil will not just magically disappear through the appeasement approach. Those who understand world history recognize that during World War II millions of people were innocently killed by the Nazis and the Communists, and that America played a key role in liberating the world from those evil powers. Over 400,000 Americans gave their lives in World War II to suppress the evil powers and to liberate millions of people. Failing to appreciate this, the Democrat candidate echoes the naïve pacifist approach of Neville Chamberlain in the late 1930’s, who sought to avoid confrontation in the guise of championing peace. That flawed approach was a failure then, just as it would be today in dealing with terrorists and insurgents. He will return the nation to the touchy-feely international relations policies of Clinton, thinking that talks and negotiations can solve any and every international crisis, all the while alerting terrorists that open season is here again.

The WAR in Iraq and Afghanistan—McCain insists that we must not leave Iraq
prematurely, for this would invite a blood-bath of thousands of innocent people who had been friendly to us, but who would be left to suffer abuse, torture and death at the hands of evil terrorists. The “surge” has worked, and is enabling us to withdraw from Iraq successfully, leaving a new government that appears capable of maintaining an acceptable level of peace and stability in Iraq. This is a tremendous accomplishment! It could be a tremendous benefit to that region and to the entire world. Now that the surge has proved successful, most Democrats (including Senator Obama) have become resigned to victory in Iraq. But “during the times that tr[ied] men’s souls,” Obama showed himself to be a “sunshine soldier” whose resolve wilted under pressure.1 Obama’s position on the War has mirrored the changing popularity of the conflict. When the war was unpopular, Obama insisted that we set immediate time-tables and get out immediately. When the going got tough in Iraq, Obama led the call for retreat.

The contrast between McCain and Obama could not be more stark. McCain refused to give in to the demands of Obama and his followers, who urged precipitous retreat when we were on the verge of securing victory. McCain called for the surge, because he saw that it could obtain victory for us and stability and peace for the Iraqis. The U.S. did not go to Iraq for oil or to nation-build; we went there with 70 % national approval to eradicate an evil dictator who fomented and sponsored terrorism in Iraq and abroad; Hussein offered monetary awards to families who would sponsor suicide bombers to kill Israelis. He harbored those who sought to destroy America. And once Sadaam Hussein was taken out, we owed a moral duty to help the Iraqis form an operable government that could protect its people. In retrospect, it appears that many Americans now regret our intervention in Iraq, but a majority continue to recognize our moral responsibility to leave Iraq better than we found it. That is why the premature withdrawal option would have been a mistake.

Senator Obama has begun to flip-flop on multiple issues recently, now that he sees the need to move from the left to the center. Now he’s trying to distance himself from himself when he was the spokesman for withdrawal and defeat in Iraq. Obama does not possess the courage and resolve of McCain, who has and will steadfastly stand up against the evil terrorists, regardless of the fickle and politically correct cat calls of those who can’t stomach the cost of liberty and who lack the backbone to take a brave stand for the defense of our own nation and for the liberty and freedom of our brothers and sisters around the world. McCain has the backbone to do this, whereas Obama repeatedly shows that he does not.

The ECONOMY

McCain seeks to cut taxes and to cut government spending. Obama promises to raise taxes and to add multiple new government programs at a cost of billions. Apparently there is no limit to the size of government that Obama seeks to build. Obama has the most liberal voting record of any U. S. Senator.

It’s not that Senator Obama opposes having a strong economy—it’s just that his commitment to left-wing special interests put him on a course that would severely damage the economy. Specifically, he wants universal health care, he wants to stop global warming, and he wants to stop drilling for new oil in America. His radical loyalty to the left-wing fanatics on these issues would lead the nation into full blown socialism and would hamper and destroy the businesses that have been the foundation of our economy—the strongest economy in the world. Senator Obama does not recognize how the environmental special interest groups have already weakened our economy based upon biased science and hysterical threats that the sky is falling. For example, the cost to build roads has skyrocketed because of the environmental impact studies and ever-expanding procedures that have multiplied since the Interstate Highway System was initiated in the 1950’s. This lunacy has got to stop, and adjustments must be made in our laws—some must be repealed. But Barack Obama will not be the one to do this—he supports increased environmental laws, increased bureaucracy, increased red-tape, and of course, increased taxes to pay for the bigger bureaucracy.

The increased governmental programs Obama is calling for amount to socialism. Obama feels everyone’s pains, and he intends to expand government to solve all problems. But this undisciplined approach to government leads to excessive government, which can survive only by increasing taxes. This approach must stop! We cannot continue to act like government has to solve all our problems. Obama does not recognize this, whereas McCain does. McCain is clearly the better choice on economic issues.

SOCIAL ISSUES

Senator McCain supports traditional marriage as the preferred unit in society for the rearing of children, and he is pro life. But Senator Obama does not stand up for traditional marriage, and he champions a woman’s right to choose death for her unborn child. It is critical that the presidential candidates take a stand on these most important social issue—Will you support the continuation of the traditional family as the bedrock of our society, OR will you support the causes of those who will destroy marriage by redefining it to be available to any and every adult relationship that one can conceive (pardon the double entendre). And as for abortion—anyone who supports partial birth abortion is either ignorant of what it is or else his judgment is so fundamentally impaired that he must not be elected to lead a civilized nation. Partial-birth abortion kills the unborn baby in a painful, gruesome manner for no valid purpose. The theory that such a procedure is justified to preserve the life and health of the woman is a fiction. And it was Barack Obama who, in the Illinois State Senate, blocked legislation that would require the participating parties to attempt to save the lives of children who were born alive after abortions. This was a barbaric and disgraceful position—and demonstrates a total disregard for those humans who are least capable of defending themselves.

PERSONAL LIBERTIES

John McCain fights to preserve the right to bear arms. Obama sided with the minority in D. C. v. Heller. Obama does not believe that the right to bear arms is an individual right. McCain believes it is.

McCain fights to preserve the nation’s heritage of being a God-fearing nation.
And while the Democrat Party gives lip service to love of God, they are the party that interprets the First Amendment to require “freedom from religion,” as they regularly champion the causes of those groups whose stated goal is to eliminate God from government. Conversely, the Republican Party recognizes that government can and should accommodate God and religion because they are vital components of a good society. The First Amendment’s prohibition from the establishment of any one religion does not mean that all references to God must be excised from government.

Except for his lapse in judgment in sponsoring the Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform Act, McCain is an advocate for freedom of speech.2 But while McCain has been shaky on this issue, Obama’s position is no better.

THE SUPREME COURT
Finally, one of the most important issues in this presidential campaign is what direction each candidate would take the Supreme Court. We must expect there to be 1 – 3 vacancies in the Supreme Court in the next four years. Right now the Court is pretty much evenly divided between four strong conservatives Justices (Scalia, Thomas, Roberts (Chief Justice) and Alito), and four strong liberal Justices (Stevens, Souter, Ginsburg and Breyer). The ninth Justice, Kennedy, is mostly conservative, but he is clearly the swing vote in many close cases. As this issue of Constitutional Law Updates will demonstrate, the next appointments will indicate whether the Court turns either to the left or to the right. John McCain and Barack Obama are clearly on opposite sides of this issue. Obama will take us to the left—towards bigger government and more socialism and fewer individual rights; and McCain will take us more to the right—limiting the size of government, cutting government expenses, and standing up against those who seek to expand the right to abort the unborn. I have hope that McCain will stand firm for traditional family values, that he will recognize the need to protect our borders, and that he will back off from his mistake in championing campaign finance reform (at the expense of jeopardizing free speech rights). But I have no hope with Obama on these issues; so once again, McCain is clearly the better choice.

CAN OBAMA PULL IT OFF?
Up to this point, Obama has been the Houdini of politics. He has magically, masterfully proclaimed that we need to change Washington, and that he’s the man to do it. His followers have hypnotically nodded and given their support—although he has escaped being pinned down to state exactly what it is that he intends to change. Now that he has won the Democrat nomination, he has had some time to figure out some specific changes that will go into his platform. Until now, most of his supporters have not really cared much about most of his positions—he won the nomination based upon his charisma and his style, not based upon the substance of his positions. Whether Obama can continue to pull-off this political magic show through November 4th, remains to be seen. As for me, I see his recent move toward the center to be merely a political expediency, which I suspect he will abandon upon election. In predicting what Obama really stands for, one must go on his previous voting record (albeit a short record). Obama will increase the size of government, raise taxes, encourage abortion and same-sex marriage. He will heap increased burdens on our economy in a mindless fanaticism to stop global warming.

I do not know whether this nation will awaken from the hypnotic sleep that has hoisted Obama to front-runner status in the presidential race. And while I differ deeply with John McCain on several issues, there are more than enough issues on which McCain is in the right, and on which Obama is wrong. Therefore my support is unequivocally for McCain.

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1 These phrases are taken from Thomas Paine’s pamphlet Common Sense, that encouraged the patriots during the Revolutionary War.

2 Perhaps Senator McCain sees the light now, since The New York Times refused a few weeks ago to print his response to an editorial by Senator Obama. McCain must recognize that the mainstream news media, especially The New York Times, has a blatant liberal bias. And as liberal as he may be at times, Senator McCain is far right of where Senator Obama is. This is why the Campaign Finance Reform law was so bad—it empowered the liberal media to have increased power and influence in the days just prior to elections, at the same time it blocked others from speaking up on current issues.

Mitt Romney for President

Mitt Romney is the best candidate for President of the United States.

As I write this¹, Mitt Romney just won the Nevada caucuses in a landslide, taking 51% of the Republican votes. Ron Paul was a distant second with 14%. All the other Republican candidates were in the single digits. Also, today, McCain won the South Carolina Republican primary with 33% of the votes (again including independents). Huckabee placed a close second with 30%, followed by Thompson with 16% and Romney with 15%. The liberal media is crowning McCain with the front-runner jacket, and are pronouncing that he has taken the lead because the Republicans believe he is the candidate most likely to beat either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. I don’t buy it. I don’t think McCain is going to get the Republican nomination, and I don’t think he is the Republican Party’s best hope to beat the Democrats. And I am not ready to repudiate my principles to win the election, even if what the liberal pundits say is true. Furthermore, current polls in Florida have McCain, Romney and Giuliani running neck and neck (although the Rasmussen poll has Romney ahead 25% - 20%), and in California one poll has Romney in the lead.

I. WHERE WE STAND AFTER THE SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY—THE END IS
NEAR FOR HUCKABEE, THOMPSON AND GIULIANI

Now that the South Carolina Primary is over—it appears that the race for the Republican nomination will be between Romney and McCain. The reason is clear: First, Romney currently has more delegates than any other candidate, including McCain. Second, because no Republican contender has more than 25-30% support at this time, it impossible to pick a winner at this point. Third, Romney is already in Florida, where he will campaign vigorously for the next 10 days—and he is expected to stress his economic message, which proved to be a winner in Michigan and elsewhere. The fact that the nation is currently facing the threat of a recession makes the economy the biggest issue for the nation. And Romney’s experience and understanding of economic issues is superior to that of any other candidate. President Bush and Congress are at this very moment discussing a temporary stimulus package to revitalize the sagging economy². All of this should play into Romney’s hands and help him in Florida. And fourth, the other three main contenders are basically eliminated by the South Carolina results. [A Rasmussen poll on Tuesday had Romney with 25% support, trailed by McCain and Giuliani with 20%. Huckabee was a distant fourth.]

(a) Huckabee needed to win in South Carolina, but he failed to do so. Although he only lost to McCain by a slim margin (33%- 30%), still Huckabee did not win. A candidate has to win some primaries. Except for Arkansas (where he was governor), there is no other state where he can expect to find the evangelical support that he will need to win. Huckabee is a great communicator, and he talks a good talk, but his governing record—especially on taxes and immigration—belie his words. Huckabee still has a mathematical chance to win the nomination, but the probabilities are poor. While Romney and McCain both have excellent chances to win numerous additional primaries—that is not so for Huckabee. Huckabee has said so many things that will come back to haunt him, and he has flip-flopped on major positions during the campaign. This will cause Huckabee to slowly fade in the remaining primaries. Although there will certainly be some evangelicals who will not back a Mormon, I predict that most of them will because the evangelicals are mostly people of principle, who support the same principles that Romney advocates. For all the reasons I stated above, true conservatives will have a hard time supporting McCain. I predict that Romney will pick up most of the Huckabee supporters.

(b) Thompson was desperate to win in South Carolina, and he didn’t. By finishing a distant third in a state that he believed to be the home of some of his most ardent supporters—this brought an end to the Thompson campaign³. He will continue to be respected for his loyal support of conservative principles, but he is not what the party is looking for in a candidate. His support will go elsewhere. I predict that most of his support will go to Romney, for the same reason that most of the Huckabee supporters will eventually back Romney—because he stands for the same principles that Thompson stands for.

(c) Giuliani has not had a good showing anywhere yet. He is counting heavily
on doing well in Florida, where he, Romney and McCain are all polling at about 20-25%. Giuliani is literally desperate to win in Florida. If he does not win there, I believe he’ll be out of the running. Whereas Giuliani at one time had a lead in the national polls, McCain has now overtaken him. Both Giuliani and McCain draw support from the more moderate (liberal, if you will) parts of the Republican party. Both McCain and Giuliani are regarded as men with the leadership skills that would serve our nation well. But neither McCain nor Giuliani are regarded as strict conservatives. Giuliani is pro choice and supports gay marriage. Put all of this together, and what you get is: McCain is currently taking the support from those in the party that might otherwise support Giuliani. Thus, Giuliani is suffering most from McCain’s resurgence, and it will lead to Giuliani’s bowing out of the race after Super Tuesday.

The combination of all of this will be that Romney and McCain will be the only two Republican candidates left standing after Super Tuesday. The biggest question then becomes: Where will the Giuliani, Huckabee and Thompson supporters go? For the reasons stated below, I believe that most of this support will go to Romney.

II. THE PROBLEMS WITH McCAIN

The problem with McCain is very simple: He’s not a conservative⁴. He is liberal on too many important issues. True, McCain has been strong on the war on terror, and this is important. But if he should win the Republican nomination, I, like his 95-year-old mother, would have to hold my nose in voting for him over the Democratic nominee. But at this point, I’m not ready to capitulate and support a Republican candidate whose political philosophy is too much like that of the liberals. McCain’s political philosophy is more like that of Bill Clinton than that of a conservative; he listens to what the voters want, then he decides what position he will take. Either for this reason, or because he really does embrace liberal causes, too often on important issues McCain has sided with liberals, against conservatives. Here is a quick list of John McCain’s serious political errors/flaws that make him unacceptable to me:

1. Campaign Finance Reform. McCain is one of the main proponents of this flawed law—the McCain-Feingold Campaign Finance Reform Bill⁵. This law imposed serious limitations on political speech in the name of seeking to keep “special interests” from having too much influence on national, political debate. The restrictions it imposes on precious political speech is significant; and the law gives increased influence and power to the media, which continues to be heavily slanted in favor of the liberal point of view. This is an assault on free speech. McCain’s excessive zeal to curtail the speech of people who pay for advertising to advocate a political position is a serious error. His goal to keep money out of politics is naïve and unsound. McCain is the darling of the media, but his actions betray conservatism.

McCain’s excessive zeal for his ill-conceived campaign finance reform law led him to file a brief against the Wisconsin Right to Life group when that group challenged the constitutionality of the McCain-Feingold Campaign Finance Reform law. McCain didn’t like the Right to Life group’s issue ad that ran within 30 days of a general election in Wisconsin. Fortunately, the Supreme Court ruled in favor of the Right to Life in June of 2007 and struck down that part of the campaign reform law that prohibited issue ads just prior to a general election. This case is extremely important for two reasons. First it demonstrates that McCain’s priorities are wrong; he sided with his campaign reform law over the fetal right to life. I disagree with his priorities. Second, his thinking is infected with the ill-founded and erroneous notion that you can take money out of political speech, and that doing so is a virtue. This thinking is naïve, and is a rejection of the most fundamental principles of freedom of political speech, which is the bedrock of all our freedoms in America. McCain’s loses twice in this matter, and it demonstrates that he lacks the judgment to be our leader.

2. Gang of 14. McCain is one of those seven Republican Senators who undermined the effort of Republican Senate Leader Bill Frist, who was prepared to repeal that part of Senate Rule XXII (the filibuster rule) which empowered the minority in the Senate to block judicial nominations unless there existed a super majority (60%) in favor of a nominee. This Senate rule had come to be abused by the Democrats during administration of Bush (43); in essence, as practiced by the Democrats, they used this rule to control the approval of judicial nominees. This part of the rule—that is the use of filibustering to block nominees—should be eliminated. The filibuster can remain for legislation, as far as I’m concerned, but not for nominees. John McCain played a key role in preserving this abusive practice. He abandoned the Republican, conservative party when he exercised this power. This act of betrayal by McCain endeared him even more to the liberals. But it infuriates me. What kind of a leader is this? He’s not my leader. He seems more concerned about appealing to the liberals than to fighting for the principles of conservative government.

3. Immigration Reform. McCain was one of the authors—along with Ted Kennedy—of the immigration bill that they and President Bush proposed in 2007—a bill that would have in essence granted amnesty to the 12 million illegal immigrants in America. This proposal was soundly rejected by the American people. This proposal was a repudiation of the rule of law in America, and it would have rewarded those who violated our laws; it would have been an insult to those people who have faithfully followed and complied with our immigration laws. While McCain demonstrated his flawed judgment in proposing this bill, he nevertheless did show that he is a disciple of the Bill Clinton school of leadership, for when he realized that the majority of Americans opposed the McCain-Kennedy Immigration Reform Bill, he eventually got in step with the majority. Well, that’s partly good, because at least he has changed for the better. But, McCain demonstrated flawed judgment; he demonstrated the type of leadership we can expect from Democrats, but not the type of judgment and leadership that this nations needs. We can do better than settle for this in a candidate.

4. He voted against the Bush Tax Cuts. When McCain twice voted against Bush tax cuts he demonstrated that he does not subscribe to the economic theory that appropriate tax cuts stimulate the economy and actually lead to increased governmental revenues. McCain voted with a minority of Congress—he sided with the most liberal of the Democrats in opposing the tax cuts⁶. Fortunately for the nation, McCain’s viewpoint was not successful. Those tax cuts
helped the national economy to recover from the brief recession that President Bush inherited from the Clinton administration, and those tax cuts helped keep the national economy strong despite the significant strains and demands of the war against terrorism. McCain’s position on this is another reason why the nation does not need and should not want him at the helm. Once again, McCain fought against the principles of conservatism and sided with his liberal friends on the other side of the aisle.

5. The Truth about McCain’s “Truth” Campaign. One of John McCain’s chief political strategies is to promote himself as the “straight talk candidate,” the candidate of truth, and at the same time to attack Mitt Romney as a liar and as a flip-flopper. In the first New Hampshire Debate, McCain attacked Romney for falsely labeling the McCain-Kennedy Immigration Reform Bill as an “amnesty” measure. He criticized Romney for running false attack ads to attempt to smear him. Well, so much for the truth; McCain himself had called the McCain-Kennedy bill a form of amnesty. Romney had correctly characterized McCain’s position. McCain demonstrated that he is a great political counter-puncher, but to those who demand the truth—they will find McCain wanting in this quality. McCain’s attacking Romney in New Hampshire does demonstrate McCain’s intuitive ability to recognize the one candidate who will be his toughest competitor—Mitt Romney. But McCain’s attempt to paint himself as the candidate of “truth” is actually an untruth. In Florida, McCain continues to accuse Romney of changing his positions with every new, changing wind. But McCain is himself the master flip-flopper. Most notably, he flipped on tax cuts, and he flopped on immigration. While he can aspire to be the candidate of truth, he has not earned the right to wear that title.

6. Federal Marriage Amendment. This amendment would mandate that marriage in the United States can only exist between a man and a woman. Senator McCain has opposed this amendment on the grounds that it violates the constitutional limits of federalism. This is usually an acceptable conservative response to legislation that tends to infringe on the rights of the states. However, because the federal government—through the courts—has already pre-empted the states in the regulation of all major aspects of marriage, the only way to recoup what has been lost by the states is to enact a constitutional amendment. This is perfectly in harmony with the Constitution; an amendment is needed to address this matter; and addressing the attack on the family by passage of a constitutional amendment is good, proper and necessary⁷. And to those who nevertheless cling to their conservative rationale and who refuse to acknowledge the critical nature of the threat to the family, I would point out that conservatism is not the only important principle of government. And in this particular case, the normal conservative approach that is sufficient to resolve most governmental questions must yield to the over-riding critical family value that is under assault in our society. Furthermore, the Courts have already pre-empted the regulation of marriage by its long string of cases that have usurped state regulation of marriage. By this I am referring to the following cases: Griswold v. Connecticut (1965), Skinner v. Oklahoma (1942), Eisenstadt v. Baird (1968), Roe v. Wade (1973), and Lawrence v. Texas (2003). Finally, I would note that Senator McCain does indeed find some protection in his citing “federalism” as a basis for not supporting the Federal Marriage Amendment. But what I see is that he is afraid to speak out on one of the most important issues of our day—he chooses to
wait to see if a super majority of the nation ever becomes supportive of this amendment. When and if that happens, I have no doubt that he would fall in line, and then run to the front of the line. But that is not the leader I am looking for. Conversely, Governor Romney has spoken out strongly in support of this amendment and in support of other issues to protect and strengthen the traditional family as the foundation of peace, prosperity and liberty in America.

III. A DISCUSSION OF ROMNEY AND McCAIN ON OTHER ISSUES

The War on Terrorism, including Iraq and Afghanistan. All three Democratic candidates condemn every aspect of the war in Iraq; the three of them argue over who would lead the nation to retreat and withdraw the fastest. Except for Ron Paul, all the Republican contenders condemn the Democratic plan for announcing a retreat date, and for premature withdrawal without first securing victory. In January of 2007, Mitt Romney was beginning his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination. At that time, our military was suffering excessive deaths in Iraq, and President Bush was just announcing the beginning of the “surge.” At that critical moment for the nation, I listened carefully to what Romney would say about what I regard as the most important issue of our day. Romney supported the surge 100%. He recognized that a premature withdrawal from Iraq would endanger the lives of millions of Iraqis who had relied on America to help them begin their new government. He recognized that a premature withdrawal from Iraq would be an invitation for the terrorists to take over that torn nation. He recognized that America could defeat the insurgents. He recognized that success in Iraq could bring a lasting stabilizing influence to that important region of the world. Six months later, when the evidence proved the “surge” to be successful, it was easy to support the continuing war effort in Iraq. But Romney stood up for the tough, but right approach when it was not popular to do so. This speaks very favorably for Mitt Romney.

McCain, of course, is also supportive of success in Iraq. He insists that America secure victory before leaving. He proudly reports that he was a vocal critic of the Bush administration’s military strategy until it was changed (and the “surge” was announced) a little over a year ago.
It seems that the economy has now replaced Iraq as the issue about which most people are concerned, but in my mind, the war on terror and the Iraq and Afghanistan military operations continue to be the most important issues for the nation. The billions of dollars that America has poured into this effort CAN bring the world important and lasting benefits. We cannot ignore the radical terrorism that brings death, destruction and fear to peaceful people around the world. The only issue of significance between Romney and McCain in this area is whether or not waterboarding is torture. There is no consensus among military experts that this is torture. McCain says it is and he denounces it, whereas Romney would not conclude that it was torture. Romney insisted that it was best for America not to spell out all of the details of what kinds of interrogation techniques the nation will and will not use. Despite McCain’s vehement denunciation of waterboarding, Romney’s position is better for the nation, and he did not back down in the face of McCain’s condescending lecturing.

One final comment is in order following the Republican Presidential debate on MSNBC last night (January 24, 2008). In watching the debate, with many questions coming from Tim Russert, and in listening to Russert’s comments after the debate—it is clear that Russert and the liberal media is attempting to resurrect the Iraq war as an issue to take down the Republican nominee when they get to the national election. Up until last night, the economy had become the most important campaign issue. But the problem for Democrats is that the Republicans, and especially Romney, prevail on the debate of this issue. The Democrats are desperate to conjure a way to knock out the Republican nominee, whoever he might be. Thus, after the debate last night, Russert gleefully explained how he had painted all of the top Republican contenders in a corner, because they all supported going into Iraq, and they all supported leaving Iraq victorious. Russert could hardly contain himself as he chuckled that current polls show that six out of ten people today were opposed to initially going into Iraq and want to get out of Iraq immediately. What this means is that Iraq and the war on terror issues will continue to be important issues until the November election. Romney and McCain are on the same page on this issue.

Health Care. Health care is an important issue for most of the nation. Romney’s approach makes sense and avoids drawing the federal government into the arena. Romney’s plan keeps health care in the hands of private industry. Romney’s plan is the perfect answer to the Democratic threat to put universal health care under the control of the government, where there is destined to be inefficiency, waste, increased health care costs, and increased taxes to cover all the newly created waste. Senator McCain has not made health care an important issue in his campaign.

No Child Left Behind. This is the one area where I believe Romney is mistaken in his support because I believe it best to leave education entirely in the hands of the states. I believe this to be the best approach, and it is certainly mandated by the Constitution. At least Romney is seeking to obtain more state control in the implementation of this program. McCain has not made education a key issue is his campaign.

Abortion—Pro Choice vs. Pro Life. Regardless of which nominees emerge from the two parties, this issue will be a clear point of difference between the two parties in November. But for now, on the Republican side, between Romney and McCain, both candidates are pro-life.
Except for McCain’s lapse in judgment in siding with campaign finance reform over life in the Wisconsin Right to Life case, McCain has been a long and consistent supporter of the right to life. Romney is a relatively recent convert to being a political supporter of the right to life. By that I mean that while he personally has been opposed to abortion, he nevertheless supported the right of the woman to choose. Romney admits he erred in this; he points out that he changed his position on this once he was elected Governor of Massachusetts, and that as governor he sided with the right to life in the official acts he took. Romney’s recent conversion makes some conservatives suspect of how genuine his position now is. Romney points out that President Reagan had a similar conversion, and that he became a powerful advocate for protecting the unborn. I am satisfied that Romney’s conversion is real.

The Economy. Mitt Romney has made economic growth a key part of his campaign, and he speaks on economic issues very effectively. Romney’s experience in business for 25 years enables him to effectively present the conservative message on taxes, jobs, foreign trade and the myriad of other economic issues. No other candidate comes close to Romney in this important area, and Senator McCain is no exception. Huckabee tried to use Romney’s experience in economic matters to disparage him, by asking, ”Who would you rather have for President, the guy who works beside you, or the guy who laid you off?” But the truth is that America would rather have as president “the guy who can create jobs and who can make the economy stronger.” That would be Mitt Romney.

If McCain were to win the Republican nomination, this would devastate the Republican Party because many of McCain’s core principles are a repudiation of basic conservative values. While I might vote for him over the Democratic nominee, I would work with fellow conservatives to block him from undermining and changing the core principles of the party. McCain will never convince the conservative base to change their minds. The question is whether he can gain enough support of the more moderate Republicans. I believe that the majority of Republicans are of the same mindset as me in this regard. As a Republican, I have core principled beliefs that I embrace, and which guide me in my political actions and decisions. I will not repudiate my principles. I will exert all the influence I can to help the Party remain true to these principles. I believe that many, if not most Republicans are similarly committed to principles. This does not mean that the Party must be on the right side of every issue—for it is not. But McCain’s position on multiple important issues is such a major departure from these principles that I cannot support him as a leader of conservativism. Thus, if he were to become President, I predict that it would cause great disruption and change in the Republican Party.

But this possible disruption need not occur. Mitt Romney’s political philosophy is much more closely aligned with the party’s conservative base, and would actually be an improvement from the philosophy of President George Bush. Republicans ask “What would Reagan do?” McCain comes up wanting when the question is put to him. Romney does much better.

IV. ROMNEY WILL WIN THE REPUBLICAN NOMINATION

Republicans tend to be people of principal—this is an advantage for Romney. Both men communicate well and have demonstrated good leadership abilities. Each man has personality qualities and deficits, but nothing of great significance, in my opinion. I think the Mormon factor will turn out to be a non-issue. I expect it will be virtually eliminated when some of the evangelical leaders speak up in support of Mitt. Finally, Mitt is younger, more energetic, better looking, and has an attractive family, and brings a noticeable record of business success—all of which will serve him well.

A final note should be made regarding the Republican debate last night on MSMBC. Romney was the clear winner last night. He was given more questions than any other candidate, and his responses were lucid, forceful and persuasive. He was very impressive. McCain did well, too, but Romney looked better. No one is better than Romney in quickly stating his position and then backing that position with facts and reasons. Romney is looking more and more polished. He presents himself as a practical man who understands and can fix the both “Washington” and the national economy. He looks very presidential.

I predict that the majority of Republicans will not be fooled by McCain’s phony “Truth” campaign. I predict that the majority of Republicans will vote for their principles, and that they will reject the notion that they need to abandon their principles (and vote for McCain) in order to defeat the Democratic nominee. Thus, I predict that Romney will win the Republican nomination. And as long as we’re making predictions, I predict that Romney will defeat the Democratic nominee (whether it’s Clinton or Obama) in the November election. More about that later.

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1. The first major draft of this article was written on January 19th and 20th, 2008, right after the South Carolina Republican Primary results were announced. Thereafter, it was revised several times, until it was completed on January 25, 2008.
2. On January 24th, the House passed the stimulus package on which it and President Bush had agreed. That measure now heads to the Senate, where quick approval is also expected.
3. On January 22, 2008, Thompson announced that he was getting out of the race. He did not endorse any other candidate.
4. McCain knows this is his weakness. So he has begun to run television ads in Florida with testimonials from some of his supporters that state that McCain is a conservative. While McCain will insist he is a “conservative,” the problem is his well-known record, where he has consistently separated himself from the conservatives and sided with liberals.
5. Because of the serious limitations that this has on free speech, I have previously addressed this issue in CLU three times: “Campaign Finance Reform Act—A Monument to the Ignorance of the American people and to the Phoniness of Congress,” July, 2002; “The Campaign Finance Reform Case—An Ephemeral and Costly Decision” (McConnell v. FEC), May, 2004; and “FEC v. Wisconsin Right to Life,” October, 2007.
6. McCain was one of only two to Republicans to vote against the tax cuts.
7. I previously addressed this issue in CLU, and explained the need for an amendment to correct the serious harm that court decisions have inflicted on the family. See “A Federal Marriage Amendment—Let the Debate Begin.” May, 2004.